Why tariffs are the ultimate test of your finance team’s data game

The business media is awash with tariff calculations. Headlines trumpet potential rates, economists debate GDP impacts, and consultants hawk supply chain redesign services. CFOs are understandably fixated on the immediate concerns: Compressed margins, disrupted operations, and increasingly complex forecasts. These are all valid worries as we navigate what appears to be a fundamental shift toward a more fragmented global trade environment.

But if you focus solely on the tariff percentages themselves, you miss the more profound challenge and opportunity that this moment presents.

The prospect of significant new US tariffs presents a complex and challenging landscape for CFOs. Potential measures include a baseline 10% tariff on most imports, drastically higher rates on goods from specific countries like China (potentially up to 145%), and continued or expanded sectoral tariffs on items such as steel, aluminium, and automobiles. This policy direction introduces profound economic uncertainty, with forecasts predicting negative impacts on US GDP, rising inflation, and substantial increases in consumer costs.

The real test isn't the tariff — it's your data infrastructure

Trade volatility isn't just raising your costs, it's stress-testing your finance function's data maturity. The hard truth? Many finance teams will fail this test spectacularly.

A defining characteristic of the current trade policy environment is extreme uncertainty, stemming from several sources:

• Policy volatility: The situation is highly fluid, marked by rapid policy announcements, sudden pauses (such as the 90-day delay on implementing most country-specific reciprocal tariffs to allow for negotiations), and ongoing, often opaque, negotiations with numerous trading partners. This makes predicting the final form and timing of tariffs exceptionally difficult.
• Scope ambiguity: Significant questions remain about the final scope of the tariffs. The possibility of exemptions for specific countries or products (like the temporary carve-outs considered for electronics or ongoing Section 232 investigations into critical minerals) adds complexity. Furthermore, potential legal challenges or shifts in negotiating priorities could alter the landscape.

This environment exposes a critical weakness in many finance organisations: The inability to rapidly access, analyse, and act on data across the enterprise.

A frequently cited challenge is the lack of comprehensive, real-time visibility into complex global supply chains. Accurately assessing tariff liabilities requires knowing the precise origin, value, and classification of goods, often involving multiple tiers of vendors and complex supplier management.

Without clear visibility into the entire product journey, from raw material origin to final import, companies struggle to calculate potential duty impacts accurately and identify hidden exposures.

Consider what it takes to answer seemingly basic questions: What percentage of your goods originate from tariff-impacted regions? How much of your supply chain has exposure to retaliatory measures? Which products' margins can absorb the impact, and which cannot? How quickly can you model alternative sourcing scenarios?

If your finance team needs weeks to compile this data from disparate systems, or if your answers come with significant caveats about data reliability, you've just discovered a strategic vulnerability more concerning than the tariffs themselves.

Data maturity powers financial agility

What separates leading companies from followers in this environment isn't their tariff exposure — it's their financial agility. And that agility is built on a foundation of data maturity.

Effective tariff management requires integrating data from multiple, often disparate, internal systems, including ERP, procurement platforms, logistics and transportation management systems, and customs compliance software.

Siloed data makes it difficult to obtain a holistic, accurate view of tariff exposure, calculate total landed costs, and assess the financial impact of different mitigation strategies.

Some companies report investing in technology specifically to gain clarity on tariff impacts, suggesting existing tools may be inadequate.

The companies poised to turn volatility into advantage share several characteristics:

1. They've broken down data barriers between finance, procurement, and operations, enabling a unified view of their value chain
2. They've built analytical muscle through scenario planning, developing the ability to rapidly model alternative futures and their financial implications
3. They leverage automation to accelerate decision cycles, reducing the lag between insight and action

Tariffs are pushing more companies to adopt "China+1" strategies — shifting some production to places like Vietnam or Mexico. While this can reduce tariff exposure, it’s not simple. Running multiple supply chains means higher costs, more complexity, and new risks. It’s not just a pricing tweak — it’s a major shift in how global operations work.

Companies with mature data capabilities can confidently evaluate these complex trade-offs. Those without them are essentially making multi-million-dollar bets based on gut feeling and incomplete information.

The hidden cost of data immaturity

The pervasive uncertainty is creating significant challenges for strategic planning and decision-making. CFOs explicitly cite unpredictability as a major obstacle to business planning. Many feel unable to formulate effective strategies because the persistence and ultimate impact of specific tariffs remain unclear.

This uncertainty has led many organisations into a dangerous pattern: Analysis paralysis. Unable to access reliable data quickly, they default to a "wait-and-see" approach that may seem prudent but actually compounds their vulnerability.

Many CFOs' initial reluctance to undertake significant strategic adjustments despite expressing high levels of concern highlights a potential "wait-and-see" trap. While seeking clarity is understandable, delaying necessary actions, such as reconfiguring supply chains or implementing robust hedging programs, could leave companies highly vulnerable if severe tariffs are suddenly confirmed or international negotiations break down. Strategic adjustments often require considerable lead time.

The companies caught in this trap aren't just at risk from tariffs; they're fundamentally less competitive in an increasingly volatile business environment. Their inability to rapidly assemble accurate data and transform it into actionable insight will hamper their response to every future disruption, whether it's regulatory change, economic shifts, or competitive threats.

Building the data-driven finance function

So, how do you pass this stress test? Start by honestly assessing your finance function's current data maturity:

1. Visibility: Can you trace spend, exposure, and obligations across your entire value chain? Do you have visibility beyond Tier 1 suppliers?
2. Integration: How seamlessly does data flow between your finance, procurement, and operations systems? How many manual interventions are required to assemble a complete picture?
3. Analysis: Can you rapidly model complex scenarios with multiple variables? How quickly can you develop financial implications for alternative strategies?
4. Action: How long does it take to move from insight to execution? Are your systems built for rapid reconfiguration, or do they constrain your agility?

The finance leaders who use this moment to accelerate their data maturity will not only weather the tariff storm but also build a lasting competitive advantage for every future disruption.

From threat to opportunity

Trade uncertainty isn't going away. This signals more than just targeted trade actions. Analysis suggests this represents a potential fundamental shift towards a structurally higher-cost, more fragmented global trade environment, moving beyond the scope of previous measures like Section 301 actions. This necessitates CFO planning for systemic changes rather than temporary disruptions, as average effective tariff rates could reach levels unseen in decades.

The current trade landscape, characterised by potential disruption and heightened friction, presents not only risks but also opportunities. Companies that successfully navigate this complexity, by building resilient supply chains, adapting financial strategies, managing costs effectively, and making informed strategic choices, may find themselves gaining a competitive advantage over less prepared rivals. Ultimately, the ability to master the challenges posed by trade disruption will be a defining test of financial leadership in the years ahead.

View tariffs not as a temporary tax to be managed, but as a catalyst to transform your finance function's data capabilities. Those who rise to this challenge will emerge with something far more valuable than tariff mitigation strategies, they'll build the financial agility that separates market leaders from followers in an increasingly unpredictable world.

The question isn't whether you'll pay the tariff. It's whether you'll use this moment to build a finance function fit for the future.

Learn more about data transformation, its important role in finance, and how to implement it to tackle tariffs, creeping costs, and beyond.